Red Sox right-hander was one of the more surprising recipients of a $21.05MM qualifying offer earlier this month, but hes likely to reject the offer in search of a multi-year deal, , who suggests that at least a three-year deal should be waiting for the righty, whos heading into his age-32 season. Pa san lists the Orioles, Cubs and Braves as potential landing spots. Anything more than a three-year deal for Pivetta would register as a surprise and something of a precedent-breaker. In the past ten offseasons, only four pitchers have commanded a contract of four or more years when signing ahead of their age-32 season or later ( ): (five years, $185MM starting at age 35), (four years, $80MM starting at 33), (six years, $206.5MM starting at 32) and (four years, $75MM Harrison Barnes Jersey starting at 33). Solid as Pivetta is, he doesnt have the track record of any of those four pitchers. When healthy, deGrom has been the best pitcher on the planet. Ryu signed his four-year deal after a Cy Young runner-up. Greinke was opting out of a six-year, $147MM deal with the Dodgers and was one of the games best pitchers at the time he signed his six-year deal with Arizona. Shields was a clear No. 1 or 2 starter, having pitched 933 innings over the prior four seasons 233 per year with a 3.17 ERA and strong strikeout and walk rates. Pivetta doesnt have that sort of resume, though his high-end strikeout and walk rates have made him a candidate for a quietly strong deal. When preparing for our annual , we felt a three-year deal in the $14-17MM annual range was po sible for Pivetta at least before he received a qualifying offer. The right-hander has never turned in a sub-4.00 ERA campaign, but thats largely due to a regular susceptibility to home runs, something that another club might feel can be curbed or improved with a tweak in mechanics, approach or pitch selection. Pivetta is durable, mi ses bats at a premium level and has improved his command three years running. He ranked 10th among 126 big league pitchers (min. 100 innings) in terms of his K-BB% this season (22.9%). It still seems feasible that a three-year deal could be there, but suggesting anything more feels like a stretch, unle s multiple teams feel Pivetta is untapped as a potential No. 1-2 starter and is willing to ignore historical norms for pitchers in this age bracket. That could well be the case, but Pa san opines that Pivetta is looking at one of the biggest deals of the winter for a starter, which would surprise plenty of onlookers. Thats a subjective sentence, but no one expects Pivetta to top , , and , while others like and should have greater per-year earning power on a three- or four-year contract. Time will tell where the bidding lands, but the more immediate takeaway is that Pivetta apparently doesnt feel inclined to lock in a one-year deal that would more than double his career earnings. That speaks to the strength of the market he and his agents at CAA are finding for his services thus far. Bogdan Bogdanovic Jersey
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