Right-hander languished for quite some time on the free agent market after he turned down a Qualifying Offer from the Red Sox in search of a multi-year deal. The 32-year-old wound up being one of the final pitchers to come off the board this winter. He ultimately signed with the Padres on a that comes with some protection for the club against Pivetta . That relatively low-cost deal seemingly wouldnt have been difficult for another club to beat this offseason, and so far Pivetta has made the rotation-needy clubs who pa sed on him look foolish. In his first five starts this year, Pivetta has pitched to a 1.20 ERA acro s 30 frames. Hes struck out 27.0% of his opponents, walked just 6.3%, and made it through seven full innings in the majority of his appearances. For years, Pivetta has been viewed around baseball as a potential breakout arm with electric stuff despite never quite putting it together acro s a full season in the majors, with a career 4.66 ERA and 4.30 FIP. That led the Phillies to deal him to the Red Sox back in 2020, and that led Boston bra s to shuffle Pivetta between the bullpen and rotation during the 2023 season. Even his best seasons with the Red Sox from 2021 to 2024 saw him pitch to a middling 4.33 ERA and 4.20 FIP. Could the veterans long-anticipated breakout have finally arrived in his first year with San Diego? The po sibility cannot be dismi sed out of hand. After all, Pivettas succe s has come in spite of two his his five starts coming against the Cubs, who sport the NLs best offense and the most runs scored in all of baseball to this point in the calendar. His first start against Chicago was a lackluster one, with three runs allowed in three innings of work, but his second time facing the club saw him strike six batters out while walking just one with one run allowed in six innings of work. Combine that with the seven scorele s innings he twirled against the Tigers and their own top-10 offense in the sport so far, and its hard to say Pivetta has coasted through an easy schedule so far this year. With that being said, there hasnt been much in the way of drastic changes. Pivettas 27.0% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate this year are both better than his career norms, but weaker than last years figures of 28.9% and 6.3% respectively. His fastball velocity also remains virtually unchanged from last year, when he Beau Bennett Jersey posted a fairly pedestrian 4.14 ERA and 4.07 FIP acro s 145 2/3 innings of work. That lack of tangible change is a potential red flag that suggests this dominance wont continue, as are Pivettas .205 BABIP allowed, 88% strand rate, and 2.9% home run-to-fly ball ratio. All of those figures as well out of line with not only Pivettas career norms but what can be expected for MLB hurlers in general. Pivettas HR/FB is particularly noteworthy, however, as home runs have been the rightys primary bugaboo throughout his career. Pivetta has allowed the fifth highest number of home runs since he arrived in the majors back in 2017 among all pitchers. Among those with at least 800 innings of work since then, Pivettas home run rate is also the fifth-highest, while his home run-to-fly ball ratio is ninth-highest. The long ball has always been whats held Pivetta back throughout his career, but hes allowed just one home run in his first five starts. While this years level of home run suppre sion is all but impo sible to imagine being sustainable, the underlying metrics do suggest that Pivetta has done better than usual in terms of keeping the barrel off the ball. His 8.1% barrel rate so far this year would be the lowest hes posted in any season since 2018 if maintained over a full season, and hes currently sporting a 37.8% hard-hit rate that would be his lowest since 2019. Combine that with the lowest average exit velocity and highest infield fly ball rate of his career, and its not hard to see why Pivettas allowing le s home runs than ever. Regre sion back to the mean must be expected, but theres at least some signs that the veteran could allow fewer homers this year than he has in any of his previous full seasons of work. On yet another hand, there are generally more home runs in the warmer months. Its perhaps not a coincidence that Pivettas career splits form a sort of bell curve, with his ERA lower in the spring and fall but higher in the summer. He has a career 4.01 ERA in March/April, then 4.34 in May, 4.66 in June, 5.11 in July, 6.02 in August, then 3.84 in September/October. As the weather heats up, all pitchers have a harder time keeping the ball in the park, which could be especially noteworthy for Pivetta. Do MLBTR readers believe in his strong start or is the right-hander going to come back down to Earth eventually? Have your say in the poll below: How will Nick Pivetta finish the year? Pivetta will continue to dominate and enjoy the best season of his career in 2025. 53.18% (1,287votes) Pivetta will regre s to the mean and post a season similar to those he posted from 2021 to 2024. 46.82% (1,133votes) Total Votes: 2,420 Anthony Beauvillier Jersey