Predictions Review Summary

Looking back at our predictions from the end of 2015 for the year ahead, it’s interesting to see how our forecasts held up. We often aim for bold claims to spice things up, and sometimes that makes for a more entertaining review of what was right or wrong.

One prediction was that the global subscription numbers for MMOs would decline further in 2016, with World of Warcraft experiencing a surge upon the release of Legion, but ultimately dropping below four million subscribers. While the spike did happen, the exact current figures remain uncertain, leaving that prediction partially validated.

Another forecast suggested that World of Warcraft would see a significant increase in subscribers around September 2016 with Legion’s launch, only to lose most of those new players within six months. The expansion actually launched at the end of August, and the initial boost was evident, but only time will tell if the subsequent decline matched our expectations.

We also anticipated that Legion’s release in July 2016 would be well-received, especially its revamped systems and improved leveling. However, the endgame content faced some hasty adjustments after negative feedback, shifting towards more token-based rewards and queueable challenge modes. Despite that, Blizzard seemed eager to break free from the content drought stigma, which might mean a change in the usual pattern of dry periods.

In terms of revenue, we confidently predicted Blizzard would profit handsomely, and that World of Warcraft’s subscriber count would close the year at approximately seven million. Blizzard’s financial success was evident, and the subscriber figure remains a reasonable estimate given the year's developments.

Lastly, there was a bold miss: that Legion would flop and subscriptions would continue to decline. So far, that hasn't been the case—perhaps with more time, the game's trajectory will become clearer, but currently, the decline hasn’t fully materialized.

Crowdfunding for Star Citizen is projected to plateau after surpassing the $100 million milestone, with organic growth expected to push it toward $105 million by its launch. With targeted marketing efforts, some analysts believe it could reach as much as $120-125 million, though this remains speculative. On the development front, steady progress is anticipated throughout the year, and despite skepticism, there’s optimism that the project’s momentum will continue without major setbacks. Currently, the game has raised an impressive $137 million, demonstrating ongoing support despite challenges.

Meanwhile, Elite Dangerous continues to evolve behind the scenes, quietly integrating features that many fans associate with Star Citizen’s promises, all without significant fanfare. As Star Citizen’s lengthy development drags on, some players' enthusiasm appears to be waning, though financial support remains strong, indicating that interest persists regardless of delays.

Regarding Star Citizen’s release schedule, some predict multiple delays could occur, potentially causing upheaval within its dedicated community. However, given that the game has yet to set a firm launch date, these delays are more about expectations than actual postponements. Notably, Squadron 42 experienced concrete delays, highlighting that some parts of the project are indeed moving more slowly than anticipated.

The space simulation genre as a whole is seen by many as ripe for a resurgence, with Star Citizen widely regarded as a leading candidate to drive this revival. By year's end, it’s expected to have carved out a niche market, cultivating a highly loyal playerbase that values its comprehensive online universe—an environment that offers virtually everything a dedicated space sim enthusiast could desire. Although this level of dominance has yet to be achieved, the ongoing development and community support suggest that Star Citizen could become a defining title in the genre.

Initially, there was an optimistic forecast that Star Wars: The Old Republic would see its player base double by the summer, driven by upcoming movie releases and potential tie-in content. However, the reality was more subdued, with the game experiencing a modest increase rather than a twofold surge, and only minimal integration with the film franchise.

Meanwhile, the game's development trajectory shifted towards a more steady evolution. Plans included a new narrative arc set to debut mid-year, emphasizing cooperative gameplay where players could team up in pairs to tackle complex multi-stage challenges. This approach aimed to diversify reward systems and promote collaborative play, making multiplayer experiences more engaging.

Contrary to earlier expectations of a dramatic storyline overhaul coinciding with the release of the new Star Wars movies, there was no significant narrative leap or shocking revelation in the game's final chapter of the recent storyline. Instead, the game maintained its course, with no substantial time jumps or direct ties to the cinematic events, leaving fans somewhat disappointed with the missed opportunity for a cinematic crossover.

2016 MMORPG Outlook

In 2016, Guild Wars 2's future was a mixed bag of expectations and uncertainties. While there was no new expansion on the horizon, fans could anticipate substantial updates aimed at winning back those who felt alienated in 2015. Whether these efforts would succeed remained an open question, sparking debate among the community.

Following the Heart of Thorns expansion, the game's momentum appeared to falter. Players voiced concerns about the lack of engaging content after completing the core experience, especially highlighting the limited scope of raiding systems. Despite these criticisms, developers assured fans that raiding would continue to be part of the game, even as some speculated that future updates had quietly deprioritized certain features.

Humorously, some joked about the next expansion involving a drastic move—implying that ArenaNet might announce a controversial event like "nuking Cantha" just to silence persistent requests from players. In reality, details about the upcoming expansion remained tightly under wraps, leaving fans eager yet uncertain about what was to come.

Meanwhile, in the realm of sci-fi MMORPGs, Eve Online was predicted to experience a decline in subscriber numbers consistent with the genre's overall trend. However, there was optimism that daily peak logins would increase in 2016, especially following the release of the Citadel expansion. This expansion was expected to invigorate the sandbox community and generate exciting news stories, even as the game missed out on a broader shift to free-to-play models.

Many predictions for Final Fantasy XIV centered around the anticipation of a new expansion, with some hopeful that it would arrive in the coming year. However, while a new expansion wasn't launched, an official announcement was made, confirming upcoming content. Experts expected that the game’s updates would continue steadily, maintaining its current trajectory and gradually building momentum.

One of the key features anticipated for the year was a comprehensive overhaul of the housing system, aiming to offer players greater flexibility in purchasing homes amid previous restrictions. As the year progressed, there was also talk of increased marketing efforts to boost visibility and player engagement, although these efforts appeared somewhat subdued compared to past campaigns.

Regarding other MMORPGs, there was speculation about EverQuest Next receiving significant updates or new information, though these rumors largely went unfulfilled, leaving fans disappointed. On a brighter note, some believed that Daybreak Games would finally stabilize, improving existing titles like Landmark and expanding modes in H1Z1, while also hinting at renewed discussions about EverQuest Next.

Finally, there was a hopeful outlook that the company would undergo a major transformation or restructuring, signaling a revival in its portfolio of games. Unfortunately, such developments remained elusive, leaving many fans and analysts waiting for concrete signs of rejuvenation within the company's lineup.

In the ongoing battle for dominance, Crowfall and Camelot Unchained are expected to fiercely compete to capture the attention of PvP and RvR enthusiasts, each striving to outshine the other. Meanwhile, Lord British is anticipated to steadily introduce Shroud of the Avatar, aiming to attract roleplayers and PvE fans, while Revival continues to leave observers puzzled with its elusive progress. It’s worth noting that SOTA positioned itself as a sanctuary for roleplay, but Revival's future remains uncertain.

The Repopulation faces significant hurdles, as its development struggles with persistent engine issues that hinder its potential turnaround. Despite efforts, these technical challenges remain unresolved, dampening hopes for a swift revival.

Many crowdfunding MMO projects are predicted to overpromise, only to falter midway through development due to funding shortfalls. These projects often fade into vaporware, although this year saw relatively few such failures, which is a positive sign for the industry.

On the other hand, some predictions missed the mark. Trion was expected to unveil two new pseudo-MMO titles—one as an import and another developed internally—marking 2015 as a notable year for the company. Additionally, there was speculation that Trion might resurrect a long-defunct MMO unexpectedly, but that surprise did not materialize, leaving fans disappointed.

2016 Gaming Industry Trends

Bree speculated that Destiny would finally see a release on PC, although in reality, Destiny 2 was announced for PC earlier this year. Eliot pointed out that The Elder Scrolls Online introduced its first buy-to-play expansion, marking a shift in its business approach, which indeed happened as the game continued to evolve this year. Justin envisioned Funcom revealing that Anarchy Online 2 was in development; however, this remains unconfirmed, and the project stays in the realm of potential rather than reality.

Eliot noted that WildStar struggled to maintain its momentum after its business model changed, though it persisted with regular updates, and rumors circulated about a possible free-to-play expansion—yet no such expansion materialized this year. Conversely, predictions about Star Trek Online's future proved accurate, as the game announced an expansion set in the Gamma Quadrant and confirmed plans for a console port. Eliot also believed Blade & Soul would launch modestly but perform well enough to secure its future in Western markets, which has held true so far.

Justin guessed Cryptic would announce a new game based on a popular IP slated for early 2017 release; this did not come to pass. Bree originally foresaw turbulent times ahead for Turbine, fearing the studio might either launch a new title or face loss of an existing one. However, with the news that Turbine is working on a mobile game, this situation has shifted from a negative prediction to a more cautious optimism.

In 2016, the gaming industry was poised for significant shifts across multiple fronts. One notable trend was the rise of innovative crowdfunding models, with some analysts predicting that the MMO genre would see more groundbreaking approaches, including equity crowdfunding initiatives that were legally new to the space.

Meanwhile, many experts viewed 2016 as a year of cautious recovery following 2015’s downturn. The landscape would largely consist of existing titles either enhancing their offerings or fading away, with new releases experimenting across genre boundaries rather than following traditional theme park formulas.

Virtual reality continued to face skepticism from both critics and consumers, as sales figures remained modest and consumer enthusiasm appeared limited. Despite this, the excitement surrounding new MMO announcements persisted, with titles like Crowfall entering large-scale testing phases, signaling ongoing interest and development within the genre.

There was also a sense of optimism about a potential unexpected resurgence in the MMO sector. Industry insiders believed 2016 could be pivotal, with companies like Daybreak and Cloud Imperium holding key positions that might influence the genre’s future trajectory. The year was seen as a critical juncture—either a breakthrough or a breakaway.

The industry was increasingly embracing the concept of many multiplayer online experiences, particularly private shard-based games, reflecting a diversification in player environment preferences. This shift was accompanied by the rise of multiplayer sandbox titles such as Ark and MMORPG-inspired ARPGs like Marvel Heroes, which continued to draw attention away from traditional MMORPGs.

E-sports also gained momentum, with broader coverage of major MOBA tournaments and the emergence of dedicated e-sports organizations and training academies. Rumors of unionization efforts among professional gamers hinted at a maturing competitive scene aiming for greater recognition and stability.

Meanwhile, the crowded market of team-based competitive shooters was heating up, with numerous titles—Overwatch, Gigantic, Paragon, Battleborn, Paladins, Wildfire, BattleCry, and LawBreakers—fighting to establish their identities amidst intense competition and rapid releases.

Finally, the proliferation of MMORPGs, ARPGs, and similar online titles was expected to accelerate, with new games appearing rapidly—almost like alien pods invading the gaming universe—flooding the market and reshaping the landscape in unpredictable ways.

Prediction Accuracy Feedback

If you shared your predictions with us last year, we're curious to see how accurate they were.

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